General Election Briefing 2024 | #4

Welcome to this week's General Election Briefing. While polling day isn’t until 4 July, it can be said that the election has effectively begun this past week.

Postal ballots have landed with voters, with the first votes being cast in what is looking to be a significant election. How public opinion will change between now and polling day will prove to be crucial. In this briefing, we’ll examine what the campaigns hope to achieve over the last two weeks of the election.

Politico National Parliament voting intention

The past week has brought mixed developments for the parties. The Conservatives are dealing with polling challenges and a betting controversy regarding the election date. Meanwhile, Reform has gained attention, with polls indicating they may secure a comparable vote share to the Conservatives. Let’s review what each party aims to achieve in the upcoming weeks.


The Conservative Party is focusing on its historically strong constituencies, with leaders visiting these areas. This strategy aims to solidify their base support. The party is also emphasising the potential lack of scrutiny for a dominant Labour majority and the message that a vote for Reform could benefit Labour. These strategies are intended to motivate voter turnout and consolidate Conservative votes.


Labour’s lead in the polls has slightly decreased, but the divided opposition suggests this may have a limited effect. The party is campaigning on a message of change, focusing on direct voter engagement. Labour is also addressing the rise of Reform, particularly in ‘Red Wall’ constituencies where Reform’s appeal could impact Labour’s chances.

Liberal Democrat

The Liberal Democrats have experienced a stable week in terms of polling. Their strategy targets Conservative-held seats, and they may benefit from tactical voting due to the split in the Conservative vote. Their campaign is geared towards capitalising on this dynamic in the final weeks.


Reform, led by Nigel Farage, is promoting itself as a party of change, similar to Labour. Current polls suggest that several Reform candidates, including Farage, could win seats. Reform’s campaign focuses on critiquing Conservative policies, particularly on immigration and taxes. Farage’s comments on international issues and healthcare have generated discussion, particularly among older voters.


The Green Party is focusing its resources strategically, with constituency polling showing potential wins in the traditionally Conservative areas of North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley. The Greens aim to retain Brighton Pavilion and potentially gain Bristol Central from Labour. Their campaign relies on extensive grassroots efforts and dissatisfaction with larger parties.


The final two weeks are critical for all campaigns. Effective communication and strategic resource allocation will be key. Teams are actively engaging postal voters, providing insights into voter behaviour that will inform final campaign efforts. Each party will analyse these insights to adjust their strategies and optimise their chances of success on 4 July.

Don’t forget to post your vote.

If you have registered for a postal vote, remember to post your ballot by 1 July to ensure it is received in time. For more information on postal voting and to find assistance, visit the Electoral Commission website or contact your local electoral registration office.